Issues and races I will be watching this fall

We are officially one hundred days from the November 8th election, one which carries massive consequences both locally and nationally. Here are four races that I am watching closely, from a local tax issue to the Presidential election:

The Proposed Municipal Tax Increase for the City of Wilmington

City Council has decided to put a 0.5% temporary income tax increase on the ballot in November. This is probably the issue that I have written the most about in this space (here and here and here), so I think my thoughts are well-documented on the issue. I have taken a role in the campaign to pass the tax increase, so most of my efforts on communicating the need for the tax will be made through the campaign. Bottom line-I have had conversations with people at the City Building, and there is no doubt in my mind that we must pass this tax. It is imperative. Whatever your beliefs on taxes, if you want our safety services (police and fire) to stay close to where they are, I believe it is in our best interest as a community to emphatically pass this tax.

Clinton County Commissioner

The election to replace Mike Curry, who is retiring from his post at the end of this term, took place in the spring Republican Primary. Brenda Woods, who has significant administrative experience in city, township, and county government, won the five person race.

The other race is still ongoing, as incumbent County Commissioner Kerry Steed has a Democratic challenger in Dean Feldmeyer. Democrats in county-wide races have faced an uphill battle, and Feldmeyer will probably be no different. Feldmeyer, whose involvement in several local organizations including Community Action spurred his entrance into the race, is running an unabashedly progressive campaign focused on what he calls a “caring economy campaign.” Mr. Steed focused his rhetoric of his campaign in the spring on his experience as County Commissioner and his focus on fiscal responsibility. Feldmeyer’s goal will likely be to continue to push for more local control of money from the Clinton County Senior Levy and continue his conversation on the “caring economy” model.

United States Senator

Not only is Ohio one of the most important states in the presidential election, but the election for Rob Portman’s Senate seat is arguably the most important senatorial race in the 2016 election. Challenging Portman for his seat is former Congressman and Governor Ted Strickland, who has spent the last few days campaigning with Hillary Clinton on the trail in Ohio. Portman, on the other hand, has endorsed Donald Trump, despite being openly critical of him.

Portman has opened up a 4-point lead in the polls, although they were taken before Strickland went on the road with Secretary Clinton. Recently, Portman has picked up a few union endorsements, including from the Teamsters organization that endorsed Strickland in his gubernatorial runs. Strickland does have several other big endorsements, including President Obama and several other unions. This race will likely come down to the wire, with Strickland touting his progressive agenda while Portman hits him hard on the job loss during Strickland’s time as Governor of Ohio. It also may be affected by rhetoric of the candidates for President, as Trump has already shown Portman’s early endorsement of him to be a questionable decision.

Presidential Race

I have written about Donald Trump before, and even gave my prediction for the contest at the state and county levels. Mr. Trump, of course, is running as the Republican nominee against former Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was officially named the Democratic Party nominee last week. This is a race of historic proportions. On one side, Hillary Clinton has been involved in politics and government for thirty years, while Mr. Trump has often discussed entering politics but finally decided to pull the trigger last summer. There is not much more that I can say on this race that I haven’t said before. A Trump presidency would be a true disaster, and his comments about minorities and women, as well as his complete lack of understanding of foreign affairs, make him unelectable. If one of the candidates decides to swing through any small towns in southwest Ohio, I will cover it, but there are many out there who can do a much better job than me of covering this particular race.

 

This election is important and historic on a local and national level. If you are reading this, and you are eligible but not registered to vote, please click here to see more information on registering. Do it today! If you have questions or comments about the article, feel free to comment below or email me at thewilmingtonbulletin@gmail.com.

My Way Too Early Prediction for the Clinton County Presidential Results

*Note: I am aware that Donald Trump is not the nominee yet. I think it is likely at this point, especially after his performance in Tuesday’s primaries. Either way, my quick and dirty analysis would stay very, very similar. As far as Hillary is concerned, she is basically the nominee at this point, so I am writing about her specifically.

2008 and 2012 Results

The first thing I did was look at the results of the 2008 and 2012 primary and general election results for the county. In 2008, Democrats had a larger-than-normal turnout in the primary with 5,296 voters taking a Dem ballot. Republicans still had more ballots cast, with 5,963 voting in the Republican primary. This is closer than normal, and from a distance could look like a good sign for the Democratic presidential candidate in the general election. Barack Obama, however, was beaten 64-34 by John McCain in the county. Why was this? My theory is that the Republican party had no really competitive local contests. The County Commissioners races were uncontested, and the contested races were mostly for state judge or party representatives. On the Democratic side, along with a heated presidential race with two candidates trying to make history (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama), there was a state senate race that featured Joy Brubaker and Bill Horne, who were fairly well known in Clinton County.

2012 was an entirely different story in the primaries, but with a similar result in the general election. Rick Santorum. who had a wide base among evangelical, socially conservative Christians (a staple of Clinton County politics), had the most votes in the Republican presidential primary. Over 6,500 people voted in the Republican primary, an increase of 500 in 2008. This primary also featured candidates for US Senate and many candidates for county commissioner. In the Democratic primary, only 741 people voted, likely because there was an incumbent president (Obama) and no real local races. In the general election, Mitt Romney doubled Obama’s votes in Clinton County, beating him 66-32.

What does this mean for 2016?

It is hard to say, in part because both parties will likely nominate candidates that are wildly unpopular in the opposing party. This could drive a #NeverHillary campaign to join the #NeverTrump campaign, creating a situation where people are voting against a certain candidate as much as they are for a certain candidate. The numbers show Republicans winning Clinton County by large margins, even as the state has gone blue in the last two presidential elections. How does this bode for Trump? He had almost as many votes in the Republican primary as Romney and Santorum combined in 2012, so it is clear that he has significant support in the county (especially places other the the city of Wilmington). He did not, however, get a majority of the votes in the Republican primary. With Kasich and Cruz, who took 51% of the county together, going more anti-Trump by the day, one wonders if some of those voters will follow. Hillary Clinton was relatively popular in 2008, posting a Clinton County primary win over then-Senator Obama, but was beaten by Bernie Sanders in the primary this year.

I could see Trump winning Clinton County by around 25 points, judging from past performance by Republican candidates and judging from him being around the same place in statewide general election polls as McCain and Romney lost by. Clinton County fits Trump’s demographic well: hit hard by the recession; overwhelmingly white; and rural. Clinton should do well in the city, where many of the county’s Democrats live, but will still probably lose by some margin. This will be an interesting campaign to watch in terms of how each candidates policies would affect those in Clinton County, and it is certainly a race we will be following here at the Wilmington Bulletin.